Heat Pump COP vs. Natural Gas / Propane Furnace Economic Balance Point Calculator

Find the exact break-even COP where an electric heat pump is cheaper to run than gas.

Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP
3.07 COP
Heat Pump Cost per Million BTU (@ COP) 14.65 USD/MMBtu
Gas Furnace Cost per Million BTU 15.26 USD/MMBtu
Savings per MMBtu Using Heat Pump 0.61 USD/MMBtu
Inputs
⚡ Scenarios:
USD/kWh
Residential electricity cost per kWh.
USD/Therm
Natural gas price per Therm (100,000 BTU = 1 Therm).
%
Gas furnace Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE %).
COP
Heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) at current outdoor temperature.
Results & Graph
Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP
3.07 COP
Heat Pump Cost per Million BTU (@ COP)
14.65 USD/MMBtu
Gas Furnace Cost per Million BTU
15.26 USD/MMBtu
Savings per MMBtu Using Heat Pump
0.61 USD/MMBtu

Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP

Graph 1 • Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP • Domain Architecture & Live Telemetry Maps Electricity Rate Per Kwh, Natural Gas Price Per Therm, Furnace Afue Efficiency Pct through Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP Formula.
INPUT PARAMETERS • Electricity Rate P: 0.16 USD/kWh • Natural Gas Price : 1.45 USD/Therm • Furnace Afue Effic: 95 % ∑ F(x) Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance DESIGN OUTPUT 3.07 COP Heat Pump Cost per Milli: 14.65 USD/MMBtu Gas Furnace Cost per Mil: 15.26 USD/MMBtu
Graph 2 • Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP Across Electricity Rate Per Kwh Sweep (40% → 160%) Evaluates Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE; HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / C across 7 operating points (current input highlighted).
0 COP 2.71 COP 5.41 COP 1.23 0.0640 1.84 0.0960 2.46 0.128 3.07 0.160 3.69 0.192 4.30 0.224 4.92 0.256
Graph 3 • Joint Sensitivity: Electricity Rate Per Kwh × Natural Gas Price Per Therm Compares Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP when Natural Gas Price Per Therm is shifted +25% (solid) vs. −25% (dashed).
0 COP 2.93 COP 5.86 COP --- Natural Gas Price Per Therm @ 75% 1.72 -30% 2.09 -15% 2.46 +0% 2.83 +15% 3.19 +30%
Summary: At $0.16/kWh and $1.45/Therm (95% AFUE = $15.26/MMBtu), the heat pump is cheaper to run whenever COP exceeds 3.07 (at COP 3.2, heat pump heat costs $14.65/MMBtu).
Summary: At $0.16/kWh and $1.45/Therm (95% AFUE = $15.26/MMBtu), the heat pump is cheaper to run whenever COP exceeds 3.07 (at COP 3.2, heat pump heat costs $14.65/MMBtu).
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Formula & Mathematical Methodology: Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP Formula

Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE
HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / COP
BreakEvenCOP = ($/kWh × 293.07) / Gas_$/MMBtu
Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE; HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / COP; BreakEven_COP = ($/kWh × 293.07) / Gas_$/MMBtu
  • electricityRatePerKwh: Electricity Rate Per Kwh (USD/kWh)
  • naturalGasPricePerTherm: Natural Gas Price Per Therm (USD/Therm)
  • furnaceAfueEfficiencyPct: Furnace Afue Efficiency Pct (%)
  • currentHeatPumpCop: Current Heat Pump Cop (COP)

Rounding: Engineering outputs round to 2–3 decimal places; discrete material bag/unit counts round up via ceiling.

Worked Example: Engineering Scenario: Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP

Find the exact break-even COP where an electric heat pump is cheaper to run than gas.

  1. Enter your system dimensions, electrical/RF ratings, or environmental conditions.
  2. Evaluate the governing equation: Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE; HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / COP; BreakEven_COP = ($/kWh × 293.07) / Gas_$/MMBtu.
  3. Inspect the primary design output, supporting allowances, and 3 SVG schematics.
Result: Computes Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP via Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE; HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / COP; BreakEven_COP = ($/kWh × 293.07) / Gas_$/MMBtu.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the Heat Pump COP vs. Natural Gas / Propane Furnace Economic Balance Point Calculator calculate results?

It evaluates Gas_$/MMBtu = ($/Therm × 10) / AFUE; HP_$/MMBtu = ($/kWh × 293.07) / COP; BreakEven_COP = ($/kWh × 293.07) / Gas_$/MMBtu directly in your browser and updates three custom SVG visualizations in real time.

Can I use Goal Seek to solve backwards for a required dimension or rating?

Yes. Click "🎯 Goal Seek" in the results toolbar to solve backwards for any numeric input parameter.

Does this engineering calculator work offline?

Yes. All calculations run 100% locally in your browser and work offline via the CalculatorGraph PWA.

Science & Engineering · Thermodynamics & HVAC Systems

Heat Pump COP vs. Natural Gas / Propane Furnace Economic Balance Point Calculator: inputs, method, and how to read the result

Find the exact break-even COP where an electric heat pump is cheaper to run than gas.

Choose inputs for the case you are checking

The defaults are illustrative. Replace them with values for your case and keep the units shown beside each field.

  • Electricity Rate Per Kwh: Residential electricity cost per kWh.
  • Natural Gas Price Per Therm: Natural gas price per Therm (100,000 BTU = 1 Therm).
  • Furnace Afue Efficiency Pct: Gas furnace Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE %).
  • Current Heat Pump Cop: Heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) at current outdoor temperature.

What the calculation includes

With the default values shown, Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP is 3.07 COP. The calculation follows Heat Pump vs. Gas Balance COP Formula; the formula and variable definitions above show how the inputs combine.

One-input check: With the other defaults held constant, changing Electricity Rate Per Kwh from 0.16 USD/kWh to 0.18 USD/kWh changes Economic Break-Even Heat Pump COP from 3.07 COP to 3.46 COP. This is a comparison inside the calculator's stated model, not a prediction.

Where to use caution

  • Uses standard NREL, IEEE, ASHRAE, and IRC design equations.
  • Verify final structural, electrical, and mechanical specifications against local building codes.

Scope: Global Engineering & Building Code Standard Check the assumptions and limitations against your situation before relying on the estimate.

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